Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM's wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
AVIATION CARBON · CORSIA CP1
Has the CORSIA market turned a corner?
The first half of 2026 was a tough one for the CORSIA market, with tepid end-user demand from airlines and a steadily increasing supply of eligible credits coming online. Fuel price rises driven by the Iran conflict then added to the pressure on CORSIA prices, and as a result we saw a steady decline to the late-June low of US$9.30. That is a far cry from the $20+ levels seen in the latter part of 2025.
In early July, however, things started to turn around after reports suggested the European Commission had signalled it would drop the proposed strict eligibility criteria for the first compliance phase (CP1, 2024–2026), including curbs on High Forest Low Deforestation (HFLD) and cookstove credits. This provided some much-needed certainty, at least for CP1, and should help unlock considerable demand from European airlines. CP1 credit prices rallied to levels approaching $13.00, reflecting improved confidence in near-term compliance demand and greater visibility on which credits European operators can use.
That buying was largely traders and speculators reacting to the news, with airlines themselves much slower to move. Prices have since moderated to just above $12.00 as the market waits for more end-user demand to materialise.
The surrender deadline for the first compliance phase is January 2028, and while that might seem like ample time to source the credits many airlines will need, there is a real chance market conditions tighten significantly during 2027 as buying activity compresses into a narrower window. The result would be a sharp rise in prices. So, has the market turned a corner? On eligibility, yes; on demand, not yet, and the risk for airlines of leaving it until next year to cover their CORSIA obligations is growing week by week.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.